There was a recent article on Bloomberg stating that some "analysts" at Blackrock and some other institutions were touting a buy recommendation on soverign Greek bonds. Their premise was - "Greece is no Lehman Brothers". My thought upon reading this was - that line is uncannily familiar. In fact I read a similar line in the media when Bear Stearns collapsed and there was some speculation around the fate of Lehman Brothers. Some one said - "Lehman is no Bear Stearns" - Really? Somehow there seems to be a general lack of discipline in differentiating fact from opionion. Using opinions as a premise is a very common fallacy.
What may seem surreal ex-ante may actually be real ex-post. Now it could be the case that "Greece is no Lehman brothers", but as of now one knows that for sure. Remember the Russian default more than a decade back ... the investment community in general seems to have a very short memory
No comments:
Post a Comment